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Abstract: Since Thomas Malthus published his “An Essay on the Principles of Population, as it affects the Future Improvement of Society” in 1798, concern about rates of population growth has been a constant feature in global development discourses. With climate change posing an existential threat today, this concern has not abated. Starting in the 1970s, population ageing began to gain momentum, especially in Western and high-income societies with concerns around the effects of rapid ageing on pension systems and the care economy. The past two decades, however, has witnessed a new concern around population bust – a significant and sustained decline in a population’s size. All these have created fuzziness on the role of population in “the future improvement of society”. Are we growing too fast? Are we declining too fast? What role does or can migration play in addressing rapid growth or decline?
In this paper, I make certain observations grounded in global data. First, the models to explain population change are Euro-centric and have limited application to non-Western societies. Second, unlike Western societies, non-Western societies have divergent demographic futures, characterized by continued rapid growth and consequential declines. Third, the drivers and experiences of population decline in non-Western societies are different from those of Western societies and therefore need new models to understand and to explain them. These unique drivers of population decline in non-Western societies make population issues consequential to the future improvement of their societies and calls for clear policy responses grounded in science
Bio: Dr. Ezeh is Dornsife Professor of Global Health at the Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University. His work focuses on urban health, population change, and models to strengthen knowledge-based institutions. Previously, he served as the founding Executive Director of the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC) and guided APHRC to become one of Africa’s foremost research institutions. Dr. Ezeh initiated and directed the Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa. He serves on numerous international and non-profit boards, including the UN High-Level Advisory Board for Economic and Social Affairs and currently Co-Chairs the Second Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing. He received the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Royal Society for Tropical Medicine and Hygiene’s 2020 George Macdonald Medal; The World Academy of Sciences 2018 Prize for the Social Sciences; and holds a PhD and two Honorary Doctor of Science degrees.
